[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 12 issued 2348 UT on 30 Jul 2012

Tue Jul 31 09:48:05 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1549UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 136/90

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the UT day with an 
M1.1 X-ray flare event from AR1536 (S22E28, trailing spots of 
AR1532) at 1549UT. There was no associated CME with this event. 
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Low for 31 July, 
with the chance of further isolated M-flares from AR1532 or AR1536. 
WSA-Enlil modelling of the CME from 28-Jul suggests a glancing 
blow on 02 Aug, but the slow speed and predominant southward 
direction of the CME should make any impact minor. The solar 
wind speed increased under the influence of a weak coronal hole 
wind stream, but remained below 500km/s over the UT day. A sustained 
period of southward IMF (5-10 nT) was observed towards the middle 
of the UT day of 30 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12323332
      Darwin              10   22323232
      Townsville          13   23333332
      Learmonth           11   22323332
      Norfolk Island       8   12323221
      Camden              13   12334332
      Canberra            11   12324331
      Hobart              13   12334332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    24   11436532
      Casey               12   33323232
      Mawson              34   35433645

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3222 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: An isolated Active period was observed at some low-mid 
latitudes stations during 30 July as the result of a sustained 
period of southward  IMF, otherwise conditions were mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled. Some storm levels were observed at high latitudes 
during 30 July. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled for the next few days with the chance of 
isolated Active levels and possible minor storm levels at high 
latitudes on 2 August due to the anticipated impact of a weak CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 30 July and are 
expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Jul    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 30 July, with MUFs 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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