[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 12 issued 2334 UT on 29 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 30 09:34:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0622UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 135/89 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the UT day with an
isolated M2.3 X-ray flare event from AR1532 (S22E30) at 0622UT.
Full SOHO LASCO imagery is not yet available for this event,
however STEREO imagery shows no evidence of an associated CME.
An erupting filament from the south-east quadrant produced a
slow south-eastward directed CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
at 00UT. The source location on the Sun and the southward component
of the early part of the CME suggests it is unlikely to be geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to be Low 30 Jul, with the chance
of further isolated M-flares from AR1532. WSA-Enlil modelling
of the CME from 28-Jul suggests a glancing blow on 02 Aug, but
the slow speed and predominant southward direction of the CME
should make any impact minor. The solar wind speed increased
under the influence of a weak coronal hole wind stream, but remained
below 450km/s over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22230011
Darwin 4 22220011
Townsville 7 22231122
Norfolk Island 3 21220010
Camden 4 22230001
Canberra 3 12220000
Hobart 4 12230010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 11340000
Casey 8 24221121
Mawson 11 43332121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1122 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 5 Quiet
01 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet 29 Jul, with
some isolated Unsettled periods. The effects of the high speed
coronal hole wind stream forecast yesterday have been very mild.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days (30 Jul - 01 Aug),
with some isolated Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 29 Jul, with MUFs mostly
near predicted monthly values. Some minor overnight MUF depressions
were observed in N.Aus. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values next three days (30 Jul - 01 Aug).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 62400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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