[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 12 issued 2326 UT on 27 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 28 09:26:28 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 1726UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the UT day, with the
most significant activity an M2.7 X-ray flare event at 1726UT
from AR1532 (S20E49). Associated with this flare were Type II
and Type IV radio sweeps and a CME with a reported speed near
1200km/s. The relevant period of imagery from SOHO LASCO is not
yet available, however its source location on the Sun and the
strong southward component of the CME evident in STEREO-B imagery
suggests it is unlikely to have a significant impact. Solar activity
is expected to be Low 28 Jul, with the chance of an isolated
M-flare from AR1532. The solar wind showed signs of the imminent
onset of a coronal hole wind stream, with elevated total magnetic
field. Expect elevated solar wind speeds next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 7 22------
Norfolk Island 2 12100012
Camden 2 12110001
Canberra 1 1210000-
Hobart 1 12100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 5 1331100-
Mawson 1 0210000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0010 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Jul 12 Unsettled
30 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 27 Jul. A high speed
coronal hole wind stream may result in Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
conditions on day 1 (28 Jul), with Unsettled to Quiet-Unsettled
conditions days 2 and 3 (29-30 Jul). A weak CME may arrive 29
Jul but is not expected to have a significant impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
29 Jul Normal Normal Fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 27 Jul. MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values in S.Aus/NZ and depressed to 25%
in N.Aus. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values 28 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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