[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 12 issued 2345 UT on 26 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 27 09:45:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with only minor
flaring (C1.4) from new region 1532(S20E67) at 1953UT. New region
1531(N15W59) was numbered today. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low over the forecast period, with the chance of C-class
flares. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed during 26
July. The solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day
to be ~350km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component of
the IMF fluctuated between +5 and -5nT during 26 July. Weak coronal
hole and CME effects are expected during 29 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Darwin 1 11001101
Townsville 5 12212212
Learmonth 2 22011000
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Camden 1 10001001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22221100
Mawson 2 21111000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3122 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 5 Quiet
28 Jul 6 Quiet
29 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 26 Jul and
are expected to be Quiet for 27 and 28 July. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase mildly during 29 July due to the combined
effects of a weak coronal hole and a weak CME. Unsettled to Active
levels are expected during 29 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mildly degraded at times during 26
July. HF conditions should improve slowly over the next couple
of days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 65 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 70 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depressed at times otherwise mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region during
26 July. MUFs are expected to be depressed 10-20% at times otherwise
mostly normal for 27 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 83800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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