[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 12 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 25 09:31:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Low Low Moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with a series
of C-class flares from AR1530 (S19E65). Solar activity is expected
to continue at Low levels 25 Jul, with further flaring expected
from AR1530. Isolated M-class flares possible from this region.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remains
elevated, but dropped back below the 10pfu threshold during the
day, and is expected to gradually decline from there. The solar
wind speed increased to 600km/s early in the UT day before dropping
back to near 500km/s at the time of this report. The wind speed
is expected to steadily decline over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22113220
Darwin 6 23212211
Townsville 9 23223321
Learmonth 8 32223221
Norfolk Island 4 22112210
Camden 6 22113220
Canberra 5 22113210
Hobart 6 22113220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 23114210
Casey 14 44323222
Mawson 24 54433244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 2222 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 5 Quiet
27 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 24 Jul.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days (25-27
Jul), with isolated Active periods at high latitudes on day 1
(25 Jul).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 24 Jul. MUFs were generally
depressed to 25% during the local day and near predicted monthly
values during the local night. Large variability was observed
in the equatorial regions. Ongoing mild MUF depressions are expected
next three days. Degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes
25 Jul. Solar proton flux remains mildly enhanced so weak Polar
Cap Absorption (PCA) may be expected in the high latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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