[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 12 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 25 09:31:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with a series 
of C-class flares from AR1530 (S19E65). Solar activity is expected 
to continue at Low levels 25 Jul, with further flaring expected 
from AR1530. Isolated M-class flares possible from this region. 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remains 
elevated, but dropped back below the 10pfu threshold during the 
day, and is expected to gradually decline from there. The solar 
wind speed increased to 600km/s early in the UT day before dropping 
back to near 500km/s at the time of this report. The wind speed 
is expected to steadily decline over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22113220
      Darwin               6   23212211
      Townsville           9   23223321
      Learmonth            8   32223221
      Norfolk Island       4   22112210
      Camden               6   22113220
      Canberra             5   22113210
      Hobart               6   22113220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     8   23114210
      Casey               14   44323222
      Mawson              24   54433244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gnangara            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   2222 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     5    Quiet
27 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 24 Jul. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days (25-27 
Jul), with isolated Active periods at high latitudes on day 1 
(25 Jul).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    55    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 24 Jul. MUFs were generally 
depressed to 25% during the local day and near predicted monthly 
values during the local night. Large variability was observed 
in the equatorial regions. Ongoing mild MUF depressions are expected 
next three days. Degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
25 Jul. Solar proton flux remains mildly enhanced so weak Polar 
Cap Absorption (PCA) may be expected in the high latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    55500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list