[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 12 issued 2341 UT on 23 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 24 09:41:54 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with only minor
flaring (C2.0) and back-sided CME activity, not expected to be
geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to continue at Very
Low levels 24 Jul. Previous Region 1515 (S15) which produced
an X-flare last rotation has returned as newly numbered region
1529. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
marginally exceeded the 10 pfu threshold during the day. The
solar wind remains slightly elevated with only minor IMF Bz fluctuations.
A high speed coronal hole wind stream may elevate solar wind
speed 24 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22112221
Darwin 7 32212222
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 8 32222321
Norfolk Island 4 22111220
Camden 6 22112222
Canberra 4 22011221
Hobart 6 22112321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 21024421
Casey 10 33222331
Mawson 25 35222364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1332 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 12 Unsettled
25 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT. Expect
Quiet to Unsettled conditions 24 Jul with the possible arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
25 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 23 Jul. MUFs remain
near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. MUFs are expected
to continue to be mildly depressed next three days. Degraded
HF conditions expected at high latitudes 24-25 Jul. Weak Polar
Cap Absorption (PCA) is ongoing in the high latitude regions
as a result of enhanced solar proton flux, expected to continue
into 24 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 72700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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