[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 12 issued 2326 UT on 09 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 10 10:26:59 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar
wind speed remained steady at around 440 km/s and the Bz component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated +/-5nT throughout
the UT day with no sustained periods of negative bias. A small
S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position by day three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22221212
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 9 32232312
Norfolk Island 5 -2221121
Camden 8 23321212
Canberra 6 22221212
Hobart 8 23321212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 22111211
Casey 25 45542423
Mawson 21 44433334
Davis 24 43543424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 5 Quiet
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with isolated Unsettled periods at some stations. Conditions
were mostly Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions
days one and two. A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected
to rotate into geoeffective position by day three bringing briefly
Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20% 00-02UT. Depressed 15% 03-05UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Sporadic-E observed after local dawn Brisbane,
Sydney, Canberra.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
11 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 60800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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