[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 08 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 9 10:29:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Seven C flares with the main contributor, region 1393
(N16W45), which continues to develop. The largest flare was a
C4.9 at 0227 UT, originating from the far side. New region 1395
(N22E59), appears to be a unipolar spot. There is the chance
of moderate flare activity. LASCO and STEREO images show a CME
at 0212 UT which occurred on the far side. This CME is not
expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters
were undisturbed with wind speed 400 to 460 km/s. Expect mostly
undisturbed solar wind conditions over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22121222
Norfolk_Island 4 12210122
Camden 5 12211222
Canberra 4 12210121
Hobart 5 22211121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 2 12100010
Casey 25 36533232
Mawson 15 34322243
Davis 17 33433243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 5 Quiet
10 Jan 5 Quiet
11 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible unsettled periods 9 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
13-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 50% 04-17
UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 11-16 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional enhancements
to 25%. Depressions to 25% at some Brisbane, Learmonth and
Norfolk Is. 19-22 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
10 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
11 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 77300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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