[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 19 Feb 2012

Mon Feb 20 10:29:37 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 105/54

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with a single 
C1 flare from region 1422(N16E03). This region has emerged over 
the last day and continues to grow. It is currently classified 
as a Dao group by the Culgoora Solar Observatory. All other regions 
on the visible Sun are stable. No Earthward directed CMEs have 
been observed. The solar wind speed has steadily risen from around 
350 to 500 km/s over the day under the influence of a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. The IMF Bz component was southward 
by up to -15nT prior to 05UT after which it has been close to 
0. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 3 days 
however M class flare activity may be possible depending on how 
the new region 1422 evolves.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Unsettled to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   45223222
      Darwin              12   34223223
      Townsville          15   45322222
      Learmonth           19   55223322
      Norfolk Island      12   35222122
      Camden              19   3522----
      Canberra            13   44233212
      Hobart              17   45333212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    20   35444311
      Casey               23   45542223
      Mawson              80   54495226
      Davis               17   44432233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 1113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb     5    Quiet
22 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Unsettled to Minor Storm levels of magnetic activity 
were observed early in the UT day on the 19th. This reduced to 
Quiet to Unsettled after around 06UT in the Australian region. 
This activity was caused by the arrival of a corotating interacting 
region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Conditions are expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled on the 20th 
as wind speed remains elevated before relaxing to Quiet on the 
21st and 22nd.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Feb    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values with 
enhancements seen at Niue. Some geomagnetic activity occurred 
over the previous day however this does not appear to have greatly 
impacted on ionospheric support for HF radion. MUFS are expected 
to be around predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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