[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 12 issued 2345 UT on 18 Feb 2012

Sun Feb 19 10:45:38 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++ CORRECTED COPY, SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST CORRECTED +++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 104/53

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind conditions were ambient until around 16UT when the 
speed increased from around 300 km/s to 380 km/s over several 
hours. A corresponding increase in density indicates this is 
the front end of the expected coronal hold high speed wind stream. 
The IMF Bz component was mainly northward until 17UT after which 
is has been largely southward between -5nT to -9nT. Solar activity 
is expected to remain low for the next 3 days. The high speed 
wind stream is expected to be present on the 19th and start to 
wane late on the 20th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11111123
      Darwin               6   21121223
      Townsville           9   22222233
      Learmonth            6   11121223
      Norfolk Island       2   00011122
      Camden               5   11111123
      Canberra             3   10010123
      Hobart               4   11011113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   00000012
      Casey                9   22331123
      Mawson               8   11110215
      Davis                8   22321223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1110 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb    12    Unsettled with possible isolated Active periods
20 Feb     8    Quiet with some Unsettled periods
21 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region has been 
Quiet over the previous day, tending towards Unsettled in the 
last 2 hours. Conditions are expected to be Unsettled with the 
chance of isolated Active periods on the 19th. This is due to 
a coronal hole high speed wind stream. These conditions should 
settled to Quiet to Unsettled on the 20th before returning to 
Quiet on the 21st.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Feb    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 
                at times
20 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 
                at times
21 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values with 
enhancements seen at Cocos Island and Niue. Some depressed periods 
are possible on the 19th and 20th then conditions should return 
to predicted monthly values on the 21st.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    23000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.