[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 12 issued 2331 UT on 09 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 10 10:31:54 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from declining region 1415 (N08W70) at 09/0933. Region
1416 (S18E25) produced B-class events and showed continued growth.
CMEs first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0536 and 09/2117
are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected
to remain low for the next three days, with a chance of higher
activity due to the return of previously active regions 1401
and 1402. A weak shock observed in ACE solar wind parameters
~13UT is probably due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. The wind speed has increased since then from ~380km/s
to ~440km/s. A 6-hour sustained southward Bz (to -4nT) was interrupted
by the shock and since then Bz has been fluctuating mostly northward
to ~7nT. Effects of another coronal hole onset is expected on
12-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22123222
Darwin 9 22223232
Townsville 9 22223232when was
Learmonth 7 22023231
Norfolk Island 5 21022122
Camden 7 12123222
Canberra 4 11022122
Hobart 5 21023121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 11133231
Casey 12 24323232
Mawson 21 43132263
Davis 18 33333352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3332 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods during the last 24 hours. Some storm level
periods were observed in Antarctica. Unsettled periods are likely
on 10-Feb and again on 12-Feb in response to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
COMMENT: Some mild periods of MUF depressions were observed,
particularly in the northern Australian region. Slightly deeper
depressions are possible on 11-Feb in response to an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity following the onset of coronal
hole effects.
IPS HF RADIO COMMUNICATIONS WARNING 12/06 is current for 10-Feb,
but ionospheric conditions have recovered more quickly than was
expected at the time it was issued.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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