[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 12 issued 2331 UT on 08 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 9 10:31:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. A newly
emerged region (N11W61) produced a C2 flare at 08/2217. Solar
activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed has gradually declined from ~500km/s to ~420km/s over
the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz has been mostly southward between
0 to -4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to rise late on 9-Feb
due to the onset of coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 23223122
Darwin 9 32223222
Townsville 11 33223232
Learmonth 12 33224232
Norfolk Island 6 22222121
Camden 8 23223122
Canberra 7 22223121
Hobart 8 23223122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 11 22344210
Casey 20 44533232
Mawson 30 43522365
Davis 36 33433375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 2323 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 12 Unsettled
10 Feb 12 Unsettled
11 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
during the last 24 hours, with isolated active periods. Some
storm level periods were observed in Antarctica. Conditions have
now returned to mostly quiet. Activity is likely increase from
late on 9-Feb due to the expected onset of coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
11 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions were observed over the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Less severe depressions are expected
on 9-Feb. From 10-Feb, conditions could worsen again in response
to expected coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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