[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 12 issued 2317 UT on 02 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 3 10:17:36 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: The solar Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) near Earth,
north-south component (Bz) fluctuated mildly between +/-3nT or
was northward for most of the day reducing it's merging with
the geomagnetic field. The solar wind speed increased from 05-13UT
from 400km/s to 450km/s and then again from 19UT, possibly a
precursor to the narrow coronal hole high speed stream expected
4Jan as the hole has some leading edge structure. Region AR1408
(7N,79W) is the most active but only produced B-class x-ray
flares and will rotating off the solar disc by end of 3Feb. AR1410
(18N,0W) and AR1413 (8N,7W) are close together near the central
meridian and both are growing. AR1410 is the largest but AR1413
holds the most flare potential of the regions on the disc,
but likelihood of M/X flares is low at ~13%.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21121021
Darwin 5 22121122
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 21121022
Norfolk Island 3 21111021
Camden 5 31221021
Canberra 3 21120021
Hobart 4 22221011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12120010
Casey 21 45542022
Mawson 11 23433012
Davis 14 33443122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2222 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Activity was Quiet at equatorial and mid latitudes.
Polar latitudes were Active near the auroral oval to Minor Storm
levels inside the polar cap, unexpected as IMF Bz was not significantly
southward but probably caused by a rise in solar wind speed from
400 to 450km/sec coincidental in time 05-13UT. A coronal hole
will rotate into geo-effective position probably sometime 4Feb,
but the 2Feb 05-13UT rise may be an early onset as the hole has
some leading edge structure. The hole is longitudinally thin,
so the enhanced solar wind speed should only disturb the global
geomagnetic field for a few hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions generally stable at mid latitudes and
Equatorial latitudes more stable than last couple of days. Polar
latitudes disturbed in the first half of the 2Feb UT by
geomagnetic activity from increased solar wind speed. The global
field may experience modest disturbance 4 Feb from geomagnetic
activity caused by high speed solar wind speed from a coronal
hole but the hole is narrow and the effect should be only a few
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 70 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
05 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some
geomagnetic activity in the first half of the UT day at polar
latitudes disturbed the ionosphere but did not affect MUFs. Conditions
should be normal for the next 3 days apart from slight suppression
of MUFs on 4 Feb at most latitudes from modest geomagnetic activity
expected from a thin high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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