[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 12 issued 2333 UT on 01 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 2 10:33:53 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: The CME launched in the south-west quadrant, 31Jan ~14UT
appears to be directed well to the west and will not impact Earth.
Solar wind speed Vsw drifted up from 350 km/s to 400km/s. Solar
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) near Earth north-south component
(Bz) fluctuated mildly between +/-5nT for the first half of the
day before turning northward, reducing it's merging with the
geomagnetic field. Only region AR1408 (8N, 64W) produced flares,
single B and C class events and it is close to rotating off the
solar disc. AR1410 (18N, 11E) nearing the disc centre holds the
most flare potential of the 6 regions on the disc but likelihood
of M/X flares or CMEs appears low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 23322112
Darwin - --------
Townsville 8 23322122
Learmonth 9 23332122
Norfolk Island 6 23222012
Camden 7 13322112
Canberra 7 23322011
Hobart 9 24332001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 23243000
Casey 27 36633112
Mawson 15 44433111
Davis 18 34543221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 5 Quiet
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Early in the UT day the geomagnetic activity was Unsettled
at equatorial and mid latitudes, and Active to Minor Storm levels
at polar latitudes. There was a data gap in the ACE spacecraft
measuring the interplanetary magnetic field close to Earth at the L1 point
for some of this period, but moderate north-south fluctuations
in the IMF Bz across the first half of the UT day are most likely
the cause of the geomagnetic activity.
The field has returned to Quiet with steady IMF Bz north and a rise
in Vsw to 400km/sec will maintain activity on the high side of Quiet.
A coronal hole will rotate into geo-effective position sometime 4Feb,
but it is longitudinally thin so the enhanced
solar wind speed will only briefly disturb the geomagnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 1915UT 27/01, Ended at 0715UT 31/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions generally stable at mid latitudes. Equatorial
latitudes may be more variable then usual on 2 Feb UT as effects of
recent storm activity dissipate. Polar latitudes may experience
moderate disturbance 4 Feb from geomagnetic activity caused by
high speed solar wind speed from a coronal hole but the hole
is narrow and the effect should be only a few hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values but variable
near equatorial latitudes with some local enhancements probably
due to the lingering effects of recent geomagnetic activity taking
longer to disperse in the inner magnetosphere above it. Some
geomagnetic activity in the first half of the UT day, with mid-latitude
at Unsettled and polar latitudes at Active levels did not seem to affect MUFs,
suggesting some resilience in the ionosphere at present. Conditions
should be normal for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 50300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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