[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 12 issued 2350 UT on 26 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 27 10:50:29 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from solar
region 1635 during 26 December. Mostly Low level activity is
expected for 27 December. Solar wind conditions have been predominantly
low/weak and are expected to continue at these levels for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11222012
Cocos Island 2 11-11001
Darwin 3 21111002
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 6 22222112
Norfolk Island 3 11111012
Culgoora 3 11122011
Gnangara 5 21222112
Camden 4 21222011
Canberra 1 00111001
Hobart 4 11222101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10101001
Casey 15 33532113
Mawson 8 23321113
Davis 11 33423211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 6 Quiet
28 Dec 6 Quiet
29 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed for 26 December
and are expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels may
be observed at times over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 33800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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