[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 12 issued 2349 UT on 25 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 26 10:49:38 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed from solar
region 1635 during 25 December. Mostly Low level solar activity
is expected for the next few days. Solar wind conditions are
relatively low/weak and are expected to remain around these levels
for the next few days. Very weak coronal hole effects may be
observed late on 26 to 27 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Cocos Island 2 11110111
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 22111212
Norfolk Island 3 11110112
Culgoora 2 21100111
Gnangara 5 31111212
Camden 4 21111112
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 3 111111-2
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01010101
Casey 17 45422123
Mawson 13 32212135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed for 25 December
and are expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels may
be observed at times as the result of anticipated weak coronal
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 39400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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