[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 12 issued 2353 UT on 14 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 15 10:53:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours,
with no significant front-sided flare activity. Background X-ray
flux steadily increased over the day. A westward-directed CME
was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery from 0224UT. We are still
determining the source of this eruption and whether there was
any significant Earth-directed component however preliminary
analysis suggests not. The numbered regions on the disk remain
largely stable. Expect Low solar activity 15-Dec, with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed remains slow,
and the IMF is stable, expected to continue 15-Dec. A deep coronal
hole at relatively high solar latitudes may elevate solar wind
speeds from 17-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 12 233-----
Learmonth 8 23321122
Norfolk Island 5 22210122
Culgoora 5 22211122
Camden 5 22211122
Canberra 3 12200012
Hobart 5 22211122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 010000--
Casey 16 44400---
Mawson 5 331000--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 5 Quiet
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next two days (15-16 Dec).
Unsettled conditions expected 17-Dec, with possible isolated
Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the
next three days, 14-16 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 30900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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