[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 12 issued 2331 UT on 13 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 14 10:31:58 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day
Dec 13. There was a C1 level event from AR1632 (N17W28) at 1922UT.
Expect Very Low solar activity 14-16 Dec, with a chance of isolated
C-class flares. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed over
the period. The solar wind speed remained below 330 km/s. The
IMF Bz component showed moderate fluctuations about neutral.
The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 6 22122212
Townsville 5 22111221
Learmonth 5 22111212
Alice Springs 4 21111112
Norfolk Island 3 12100112
Culgoora 2 21010111
Gnangara 5 22111212
Camden 3 22011111
Canberra 2 22000111
Hobart 4 22111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 12000010
Casey 13 35421111
Mawson 7 33111113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 5 Quiet
16 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field stayed at Quiet levels
today. Expect generally Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the
next three days, 14-16 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 30900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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