[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 12 issued 2325 UT on 03 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 4 10:25:37 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the past 24
hours. Solar active regions generally stable. Solar wind speed
was steady at ~350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12222212
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 7 --321222
Learmonth 9 -3222223
Alice Springs 6 --222212
Norfolk Island 3 11111112
Culgoora 5 11112113
Gnangara 7 21222223
Camden 5 12222112
Canberra 4 01122212
Hobart 5 11221212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 01222112
Casey 18 34533223
Mawson 8 23212223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2232 2100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
06 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels at
low to mid latitudes. Isolated Unsettled periods observed during
the first half of the UT day at some high latitude stations.
Expect Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Darwin enhanced 15-30% 11-16UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted monthly values during
the last 24 hours. Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected
for 04-06 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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