[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 12 issued 2349 UT on 02 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 3 10:49:14 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: All visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately
quiet during 2 Dec. Two (A1623 and 1625) out of three regions
on the disk are declining. The current spot groups are not particularly
active, solar activity is expected to be mostly at Very Low levels
over the next 3 days. CME activity observed during 02 Dec (~1030UT
and 1630 UT) is not Earth directed and is not expected to be
geoeffective. The solar wind speed remained below 350 km/s. The
IMF Bz component had a mild southward bias to -7nT during the
first part of the UT day. The solar wind is expected to be mostly
undisturbed over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22333111
Darwin 9 22333112
Townsville 9 22333211
Learmonth 9 22333112
Alice Springs 8 22333101
Norfolk Island 7 11333002
Culgoora 7 22333100
Gnangara 8 22333111
Camden 8 22333111
Canberra 6 12333000
Hobart 8 22333101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 12422000
Casey 12 34332212
Mawson 13 43332322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1032
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours. Unsettled activity occurred
in the first half of the UT day, 02 Dec. This activity was associated
with a mild prolonged southward Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field peaking near -7nT at ~08UT. Geomagnetic activity
has decrease and is expected to remain Quiet for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressions to 20%; 20-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressions to 20%;19-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted monthly values during
the last 24. Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected
for 03-05 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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