[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 12 issued 2345 UT on 06 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 7 09:45:57 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0438UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate 06-Aug, with mostly C-class
flare activity and a single M1 flare from AR 1542 just rotating
onto the disc. Expect Moderate solar activity 07-Aug. AR1542
issued limb CMEs that will not be geoeffective. The CME associated
with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug from the filament
east of the central meridian may have a glancing impact early
on 08-Aug. IMF Bz was largely southward during the UT day, facilitating
merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed rose from
~340km/s to ~380km/s at 16UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 6 22222221
Norfolk Island 4 22121111
Camden 5 12122211
Canberra 4 12121211
Hobart 5 12222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 12133320
Casey 7 23111312
Mawson 32 56322632
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1011 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region
during 06-Aug. Conditions near the auroral oval were Unsettled
to Minor Storm due to long periods of merging with the southward
interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet for 07 Aug. A CME launched on 4 Aug eastward
of Earth is expected to strike a glancing blow early on 08-Aug,
producing Unsettled to Active levels on 08-Aug at mid and low
latitudes and Minor storm periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 80 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
08 Aug 85 0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
09 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 06-Aug, with MUFs mostly near
or above predicted monthly values at mid-latitudes, more variable
at low-latitudes and enhanced at high latitudes. The T index
is higher than the predicted monthly value due to a large number
of smaller sunspots emitting ionising EUV. Expect mostly Normal
to slightly enhanced MUF conditions for the 07 Aug. On 8 Aug
a CME should strike a glancing blow causing Unsettled-Active
geomagnetic conditions, which should slightly depress MUFs, with
recovery on the 9th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 39100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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