[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 12 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 6 09:31:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 05-Aug, with just minor C-class
flare activity. Expect Low solar activity 06-Aug. The CME associated
with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug may have a glancing
impact on 08-Aug. Solar wind speed continued to decline over
the UT day, and is expected to remain below 400km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11120011
Darwin 4 22120012
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 5 22121121
Norfolk Island 2 11120011
Camden 2 11120001
Canberra 2 11020001
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 10020000
Casey 4 12211111
Mawson 12 22210335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2110 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 5 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 18 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region
during 05-Aug. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
Quiet for the next 2 days (06-07 Aug). A CME, expected to arrive
early on 08-Aug, may produce Active levels on 08-Aug, with Minor
storm periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 05-Aug, with MUFs mostly near
predicted monthly values. Expect mostly Normal HF conditions
for the next two days (06-07 Aug), with some degraded HF conditions
at mid-high latitudes day 3 (08-Aug). MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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