[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 12 issued 2349 UT on 29 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 30 09:49:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
low C-class flares from regions 1465(S18W80), 1466(N13W65), 1469
(S19W01) and 1471(S23E57). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed varied between 380km/s and 440 km/s during the
UT day today. The IMF Bz component mostly varied between +3nT
and -4nT, staying southwards for relatively longer periods of
time. Coronal hole effects are likely to lift the wind speed
from 01 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Mostly Quiet. Isolated Unsettled
periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21111011
Darwin 3 21102011
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 211210-1
Norfolk Island 2 22100010
Camden 3 21111011
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 3 22111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11011000
Casey 6 23312011
Mawson 18 54211053
Davis 17 33322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1002 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 7 Quiet
01 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels on
most locations today with some periods of Unsettled levels at
high latitudes. Nearly similar activity may be expected for 30
April. Geomagnetic activity levels are then expected to rise
to Unsettled levels on 01 May and Unsettled to Active levels
on 02 May due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods of
minor depressions on mid latitudes were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected on 30 April with some
possibility of periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions
on high and some mid latitude locations on 01 and 02 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 77 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 73 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the UT day, with mild mid-latitude depressions at times. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 30
April. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be possible on 01
and 02 May at high and some mid latitude locations due to
possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 92300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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