[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 12 issued 2353 UT on 28 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 29 09:54:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 1461(N10W89), 1466(N12W51),
1467(N12E18),1469 (S19E14) and 1470(S17E61). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low for
the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class events. The solar
wind speed continued its decline from 470km/s to around 420km/s
by 17UT. Over the same period, the IMF Bz component mostly
varied between +/-4nT. Coronal hole effects are likely to lift
the wind speed from 01 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 11121222
Darwin 5 21121222
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 6 22122221
Norfolk Island 5 11121222
Camden 5 11121222
Canberra 3 01021221
Hobart 7 12122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 01032221
Casey 9 23322222
Mawson 21 33322355
Davis 16 23332352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3320 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 6 Quiet
30 Apr 5 Quiet
01 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next 2 days. Some
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels (possibly up to
Unsettled) may be possible on 01 May due to an expected
effect of a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods of
minor depressions on mid latitudes were observed today. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with
some possibility of periods of minor MUF depressions on high
and some mid latitude locations on 01 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the UT day, with mild mid-latitude depressions at times. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next 2 days. Minor MUF depressions may be possible on 01 May
at high and some mid latitude locations due to possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels from this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list