[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 12 issued 2353 UT on 14 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 15 09:53:19 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Two new regions 1458(N07E70) and 1459(S15E79) have been numbered
today. The anticipated coronal hole effect is keeping the solar
wind stream strong. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from
580 to 530 km/s during the UT today. The Bz component of IMF
fluctuated between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day. Solar wind
stream is expected to gradually weaken over the next 24 hours as
the coronal hole effect declines. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
with Isolated Active Periods
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 23222221
Darwin 7 23221222
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 9 33222321
Norfolk_Island 5 22221121
Camden 7 23222221
Canberra 3 11121210
Hobart 7 23222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie_Island 7 22232221
Casey 13 34322331
Mawson 30 46442353
Davis 27 44433363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 22 4544 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr 6 Quiet
17 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated
active periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may
continue to stay enhanced at mostly Unsettled levels on
15 April and then decline down to quiet conditions on 16 April
as the current coronal hole effect is expected to further weaken.
Mostly Quiet levels of activity may be expected on 17 April too.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 15 April, mainly
on high and possibly some mid latitudes due to expected continued
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Mostly normal
HF conditions on most locations may be expected on 16 and 17
April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of depressions
at most locations. Minor MUF depressions may be observed on
15 April, especially at high and possibly some mid latitude
locations due to expected continued enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on 16 and 17 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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