[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 12 issued 2338 UT on 13 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 14 09:38:58 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The anticipated coronal hole effect is keeping the solar wind
stream strong. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 500
to 650 km/s during the first six hours of the UT today and then
decreased to 580 km/s by around 2300UT. The Bz component of IMF
fluctuated between +/-9nT for the first five hours, staying
southwards for most parts of this period. Bz stayed between
+/-4nT for most parts of the remaining UT day. Solar wind stream
is expected stay strong for the next two days due to the continued
effect of the coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to stay
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
with Isolated Active Periods
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 33331222
Darwin 11 33332222
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 13 43332232
Norfolk_Island 10 33331212
Camden 13 33441222
Canberra 7 22330211
Hobart 14 33442222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie_Island 21 34553311
Casey 13 43332322
Mawson 45 66433356
Davis 39 64443365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 1421 1354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 13 Unsettled to Active
15 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated
active periods were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may
continue to stay enhanced at Unsettled to Active levels on
14 April, and mostly Unsettled then declining down to Quiet
conditions on 15 April due to the continued effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Mostly Quiet
levels of activity may be expected on 16 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed
from 14 to 15 April, mainly on mid and high latitudes due
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions on most locations
may be expected on 16 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 70 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of depressions
at most locations. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be
observed on 14 April and at times on 15 April, especially at
mid and high latitudes due to expected continued enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected on 16 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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