[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 21 09:27:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: There were numerous C-class flares, the largest being
a C9.5 at 0513 UT from region 1296 (N26W15). Regions 1295 (N22W33)
and 1301 (N20E55) were the other contributors. SOHO LASCO and
STEREO images show no Earth directed CMEs during the reporting
period. Solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed apart from
a brief period around 02-05 UT when there was a sustained but
mild southward IMF and an increase in the solar wind to about
470 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed
on 21 and 22 Sep becoming mildly disturbed in the latter half
of 23 Sep due to the effects of the CME on the 19 Sep and coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Darwin 5 13211112
Townsville 7 23222122
Learmonth 5 22221111
Alice_Springs 5 23121111
Norfolk_Island 3 22111001
Gnangara 5 22221121
Camden 3 12211011
Canberra 3 12211010
Hobart 3 12211010
Macquarie_Island 2 02211000
Casey 11 -4332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 12 Quiet with unsettled to active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-11 and 23 UT.
No data 12-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
enhancements to 30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Depressions to 40% at Darwin 17-18 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 30% mostly Hobart, Perth and Learmonth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued
on 20 September and is current for interval 21 September
only (SWFs) . With solar activity increasing, there is
the chance of sudden disruptions to communications
(short wave fade-outs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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