[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 20 09:30:17 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: There were a number of C-class flares, the largest being
a C6.9 at 1541 UT from region 1301 (N20E63). There were also
a number of CMEs, only one of which appears to have a weak, Earth
directed component, based on the STEREO images. This CME appears
to have originated from region 1301 before 0654 UT and may be
geo-effective around 23 Sep. Solar wind parameters have been
undisturbed over the past 24 hours and are expected to remain
so over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 4 22200112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 11111111
Alice_Springs 1 11100011
Norfolk_Island 1 01101110
Gnangara 3 11111111
Camden 1 10100011
Canberra 0 00100010
Hobart 1 01100010
Macquarie_Island 0 00100000
Casey 4 2--21111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly valueswith enhancements to 23%
06-08 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
09-12 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: With solar activity increasing, there is the chance
of sudden disruptions to communications (short wave fade-outs).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 30700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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