[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 11 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 31 10:30:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 1330 (N06W26) and 1334 (N12E34),
the largest being a C2 at 30/0939 from region 1330. Solar activity
is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days, with the chance
of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed remained below 300km/s
until around 09UT when a weak shock in the ACE solar wind data
was observed, probably due to the arrival of a CME observed on
26-Oct. Since then, wind speed has peaked at ~400km/s. The IMF
Bz was mostly neutral until the shock but since then has varied
in the range -7 to +10nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11032312
Darwin 7 1-132312
Townsville 6 11032312
Learmonth 8 11033303
Norfolk Island 5 11032310
Camden 6 01132312
Canberra 4 02022211
Hobart 6 01132302
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 01044401
Casey 8 23222213
Mawson 9 42122312
Davis 9 22223322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak sudden impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer
data at 30/1002UT, probably due to the arrival of a CME observed
on 26-Oct. Before this, conditions were mostly Quiet. Following
the impulse, Unsettled to Active periods were observed over much
of the Australian region. Over the last 6 hours, conditions have
returned to mostly Quiet. Further Unsettled periods are expected,
with some Active periods possible during the next 2 days due
to another weak CME arrival during the next 24 hours, combined
with mild coronal hole effects. Conditions are expected to return
to Quiet levels by 2-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 100 About 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Nov 95 About 10% above predicted monthly values
02 Nov 95 About 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some MUF enhancements were observed over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for the following 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 285 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 13400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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