[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 11 issued 2329 UT on 29 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 30 10:29:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours,
with C-class flares from regions 1324 (N12W85) and 1325 (N16W49),
the largest being a C3 at 29/1452 from region 1324. Solar activity
is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed remained mostly below ~300km/s. The IMF Bz was mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 1 10000011
Learmonth 1 20000001
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Camden 0 10000001
Canberra 1 12000001
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 1 20000011
Davis 6 22222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 5 Quiet
31 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the last 24 hours were Quiet.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with
some Unsettled periods from weak coronal hole effects and possible
CME arrivals from late on 30-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 100 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 95 About 10% above predicted monthly values
01 Nov 95 About 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over the Australian region
during the last 24 hours. Enhancements are expected to diminish
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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