[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 11 issued 2329 UT on 27 Oct 2011

Fri Oct 28 10:29:20 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 132/86

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours, 
the largest event being a C2 flare at 27/1844 from region 1333 
(N15E11). A CME was observed in STEREO imagery around 12UT, probably 
associated with a lifting filament in the NE quadrant. This could 
be mildly geoeffective late 31-Oct to 1-Nov. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind 
speed varied between 360-480km/s over the UT day and the IMF 
Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. Solar wind speed is expected to 
increase during 28-Oct due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22111011
      Darwin               4   22211012
      Townsville           4   22111021
      Learmonth            3   22111001
      Norfolk Island       3   11101121
      Camden               3   12211011
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               3   22111010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   12111000
      Casey               16   45422122
      Mawson               9   33223103
      Davis               13   24333223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. Antarctic conditions were mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled with some early Active and Minor Storm periods. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days, 
with some Unsettled periods due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Oct   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct   105    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFS were near predicted monthly values over most of 
the Australian region, with enhancements in the North. HF conditions 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next 3 days, with some 
depressions at high latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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