[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 11 issued 2331 UT on 26 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 27 10:31:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours,
the largest event being a C1 flare at 26/1001 from region 1324
(N12W38). An associated CME could be mildly geoeffective around
30-31 Oct, based on analysis of available imagery. Solar activity
is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed declined slightly from ~500km/s to vary between 400-450km/s
over the last 2 hours. IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT over
the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase slightly
from 28-Oct due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22210112
Darwin 4 12210112
Townsville 4 21211112
Learmonth 3 22110111
Norfolk Island 4 22111112
Camden 3 11210112
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 3 22210101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 12110111
Casey 22 55521223
Mawson 9 33311213
Davis 11 34322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 33 6653 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian
region. Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions were observed for
the early part of the UT day in Antarctica, declining to mostly
Quiet levels later. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for
27-Oct. On the following two days, some Unsettled periods are
possible due to a small southern hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
SE Aust/NZ depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFS were observed over the south-east Australia/NZ
region until around 07UT. HF conditions are expected to be mostly
normal for the next 3 days, with some depressions at high latitudes
on 28-29 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list