[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 5 10:27:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. The largest flare, a C7
(04/0923UT) came from region 1302 (N13W85). Solar wind speed
varied mostly between 360 km/s and 400 km/s during the UT day.
The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-5nT for most parts
of the UT day, staying mostly southward from 0400UT until around
1700UT. A full halo CME was observed today starting around
04/1236UT. This CME is not earthward directed. Expect possible shock
arrivals and stronger solar wind parameters days one and two
due to the expected arrival of three CMEs. Solar activity is
expected to stay at Low levels for the next 3 days.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1295 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 8 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Mostly Quiet with some Unsettled
periods.
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 11232311
Darwin 8 -3222312
Townsville 10 21333322
Learmonth 7 21232311
Alice_Springs 6 21222301
Norfolk_Island 5 21221211
Gnangara 6 11132311
Camden 6 10232311
Canberra 4 00222301
Hobart 6 10232311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 0012 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active, minor storm periods possible.
06 Oct 17 Unsettled to Active, minor storm periods possible.
07 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 3 October and
is current for interval 5-6 October Mostly Quiet geomagnetic
conditions were observed today. Mostly Unsettled to Active levels
of geomagnetic activity with the possibility of Minor Storm periods
may be expected for the next two days due to the expected effect
of 3 earthward directed CMEs. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to return to mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on day 3 for the
forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 05 and 06 October due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period. HF conditions may be expected
to return to mostly normal levels on day 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 3 October
and is current for interval 5-6 October HF conditions stayed
mostly at normal levels today. Minor to moderate degradations
on 05 and 06 October may be expected due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Conditions may
be expected to return to mostly normal levels on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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