[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 4 10:46:53 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. The largest flare,
a C7 (03/0030UT) came from region 1302 (N13W69). Solar wind
speed showed a gradual decline from 420 to 360 km/s during
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied betwee +/-5nT
for most parts of the UT day, staying mostly southward during
the second half of the day. Solar wind parameters should
decline day one as the coronal hole effect further diminishes.
Expect possible shock arrivals and stronger solar wind parameters
days two to three due to the expected arrival of three CMEs.
Solar activity is expected to stay at Low levels for the next
2 days and then decline to Very Low levels on the third day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11222111
Darwin 5 21212112
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 6 21113222
Alice_Springs 4 11122211
Norfolk_Island 4 21121111
Gnangara 6 11213222
Camden 4 11222111
Canberra 4 11222111
Hobart 4 01222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie_Island 6 01333200
Casey 10 24322222
Davis 11 23323232
Mawson 14 22222254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1233 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
05 Oct 15 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
06 Oct 17 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for tomorrow (04 October).
Mostly unsettled to active levels of geomagnetic activity with
the possibility of minor storm periods may be expected for the
following two days thereafter due to the expected effect of 3
earthward directed CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 04 October. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions may be expected on
05 and 06 October due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 70 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Oct 70 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for tomorrow
(04 October) with the possibility of minor to moderate
degradations on 05 and 06 October due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels on 05 and 06 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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