[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 11

Sun Oct 2 10:38:38 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    1002UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 137/91

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: Active Region 1305 (N12W12) produced a long-duration 
M1.2 level flare peaking at 0959UT. An Sf flare was observed 
in AR1302 (N16W41) immediately prior to this event. The two flares 
were associated with a pair of Type II radio sweeps with estimated 
velocities 850 and 620 km/s respectively. LASCO C3 imagery is 
unavailable. A front-side CME is visible in STEREO A imagery 
after 1008UT and approximately one hour later in STEREO B imagery. 
This suggests the CME is Earth-directed. Solar wind speed increased 
from ~400 to 550km/s in the period 06-11UT and remains elevated 
at ~500km/s. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field fluctuated +5/-8nT over the UT day with sustained intervals 
of southward bias 02-04 and 18-20UT. Regions 1302 and 1305 maintain 
potential for isolated M to X class flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32223222
      Darwin              11   33223223
      Townsville          14   43333223
      Learmonth           11   33223223
      Alice_Springs        9   32223222
      Norfolk_Island       7   3-222122
      Gnangara            10   32223223
      Camden               9   32233122
      Canberra             8   32223122
      Hobart              10   32333122

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct : 
      Macquarie_Island    19   33454222
      Casey               19   44532133
      Davis               37   65444354
      Mawson              42   66334455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1000 1144     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Oct     5    Quiet 
04 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled 00-03 and 
09-15UT at low latitudes, 00-06 and 09-15UT at mid latitudes 
and Quiet at other times. Conditions were mostly Unsettled to 
Active at high latitudes. Expect isolated Unsettled to Active 
periods day one due to a weak recurrent coronal hole wind stream 
and a possible shock arrival from the CME observed 29/1247UT. 
There is a chance of Unsettled to Minor Storm intervals late 
on day two and into day three due to possible shock arrivals 
from the CME sequence observed 30 Sep and 01 Oct. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Oct    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      No data after 21UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief depressions to 15% before local dawn observed 
at Darwin. Expect mostly normal HF propagation conditions next 
three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic region days 
one and three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    83800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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