[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 1 09:33:23 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1907UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Active Region 1305 (N12E01) produced a C7.7 level flare
at 0400UT and an M1 level event at 1906UT. Minor C-class flares
were also produced by AR1302 and 1307. LASCO C3 imagery shows
a N-directed CME after 0150UT. STEREO imagery indicates this
was a far-side event. Solar wind speed was mostly steady at ~450
km/s with minor disturbances 00-02UT and 14-18UT. The Bz component
of the IMF remained slightly positive throughout the UT day but
has trended moderately negative after 30/22UT. Regions 1302 and
1305 maintain potential for isolated M to X class flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 21110133
Darwin 6 21110133
Townsville 8 22221233
Learmonth 8 32111133
Alice_Springs 5 21100133
Norfolk_Island 4 21010123
Gnangara 5 21111132
Camden 5 21000033
Canberra 3 21000022
Hobart 4 21000023
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 2 10000022
Casey 11 43321222
Davis 10 33232222
Mawson 11 53111122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 15 4433 4111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet through the
mid-part of the UT day with Unsettled periods observed early
and late in the day. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions days
1-2 with a chance of isolated Active intervals due to a possible
minor shock arrival from the CME observed following a C2 level
flare at 29/1247UT, and a weak recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
Conditions should become generally Quiet day 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
No data 03-06UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Evening depressions to 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Briefly depressed before local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief depressions to 30% before local dawn observed
at Darwin. Brief depressions to 15% before local dawn at Townsville,
Brisbane, Norfolk Island. Expect mostly normal HF propagation
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic
region days one and two.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list