[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 10 09:33:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity increased slightly over the last 24 hours.
New region 1210(N20E08) produced two C1 flares. A C5 flare occurred
at 21UT, associated with a CME from beyond the northeast limb.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Further C-class
activity is expected over the next 3 days with the chance of
an isolated M-class event. The solar wind speed increased slightly
to ~330km/s. Bz fluctuated between +/- 4nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to increase gradually over the next 2 to 3 days due
to mild effects from a recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Darwin 3 211-1101
Townsville 2 11101101
Learmonth 1 10100100
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 1 11000100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 5 Quiet
11 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to increase gradually
to Unsettled levels of the next 2 to 3 days to to mild recurrent
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 55 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% enhanced.
11 May 55 Near predicted monthly values to 10% enhanced.
12 May 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF enhancements were observed over the last 24
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next
day, with a gradual return to normal conditions during days 2
to 3 due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 13200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list