[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 9 09:31:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 100/48
COMMENT: New regions 1208 (N13E49) and 1209(N35E08) appeared
on the disc. The active regions on the disc remained stable.
No CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed remained low at between
330-290km/s. Bz fluctuated between -4/2nT for most of the reporting
period. Possibility of C-class flares over the forecast period.
The solar wind parameters are expected to remain low over the
next few days, however might become slightly disturbed on days
2 and 3 due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 1 10001001
Darwin 2 21101002
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 1 20001001
Canberra 0 00001001
Hobart 1 00011001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
11 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed to 25% 11-18UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 55 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
10 May 55 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
11 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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