[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 11

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             102/50             100/48

COMMENT: New regions 1208 (N13E49) and 1209(N35E08) appeared 
on the disc. The active regions on the disc remained stable. 
No CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed remained low at between 
330-290km/s. Bz fluctuated between -4/2nT for most of the reporting 
period. Possibility of C-class flares over the forecast period. 
The solar wind parameters are expected to remain low over the 
next few days, however might become slightly disturbed on days 
2 and 3 due to recurrent coronal hole effects. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001001
      Darwin               2   21101002
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            1   20001001
      Canberra             0   00001001
      Hobart               1   00011001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1110 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     7    Quiet 
10 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
11 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed to 25% 11-18UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
10 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
11 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    43700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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