[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 21 10:42:29 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours while
the current regions on disc remain quiet and stable. The main
active region is AR1175 which issued 2 B-class flares and is
growing but of low magnetic complexity. The solar wind speed
ranged between 340km/s-400km/s over the UT day while IMF Bz was
continuously weakly southward at approximately -4nT causing low
level geomagnetic merging. Solar activity is expected to be Low
for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is likely to increase with
the return of regions 1165 and 1164 from 23-Mar.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1165 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 22 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12113222
Darwin 7 22113222
Learmonth 7 11023223
Canberra 4 01013212
Hobart 6 02113222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1011 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 5 Quiet
22 Mar 5 Quiet
23 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours with Active conditions for high latitudes
due to southward IMF Bz. Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 2 days with Unsettled conditions on day 3 due to the coronal
hole east of AR1175.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 55 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 50 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for mid-latitude
regions except for an enhancement near local dusk over the last
24 hours. Strongly enhanced conditions near equatorial regions.
Enhanced MUFs over the next 2 days expected especially for Northern
AUS and near equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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