[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:47:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours while
the current regions on disc remain quiet and stable. The solar
wind speed ranged between 320km/s-380km/s over the UT day while
IMF Bz ranged between +/-4nT without any sustained southward
excursions. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the
next 24 hours Possible increase in solar activity to Low levels
with the return of regions 1165 and 1164 from 21Mar onwards.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12123101
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 8 22223---
Learmonth 3 12013001
Canberra 3 11123000
Hobart 3 11123000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 5 Quiet
21 Mar 5 Quiet
22 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions for high latitudes
for the first half of the UT day and between 12UT-15UT for mid-to
low latitudes. Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days
with possible Unsettled periods for mid to high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for most
regions over the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs of ~30% observed
during local day and night for IPS Cocos Is. station. Notable
sporadic E observed 09-13UT for Equatorial regions. Enhanced
MUFs of 15% during local night for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions.
MUFs expected to be at monthly predicted values for the next
3 days with possible MUF enhancements of ~15% during local night
for mid to low latitudes 20Mar-21Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list