[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 28 09:45:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1236 which has rotated off disk, was the source of 2 B-class
flares which included a long duration B6.6 flare at 1542UT. Solar
wind speed continued to decline, from approx 480km/s at 00UT
to be 400km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz ranged between
+/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Darwin 4 -3211011
Townsville 2 1111200-
Learmonth 3 11122001
Canberra 2 110-----
Hobart 2 11012000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3311 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 5 Quiet
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 15% observed during local day for
Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions and Antarctic regions over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Equatorial
regions with IPS Cocos Is. station having depressed periods during
local night along with Northern AUS stations. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with continued MUF depressions
during local day ranging from 10%-20% for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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