[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 27 09:35:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and
is expected to remain so for the next 3 days. Over the last 24
hours, the solar wind speed declined from around 550km/s to ~500km/s.
The IMF Bz has ranged between +/-2nT for the last 10 hours. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue declining over the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 23112121
Darwin 5 221122--
Townsville 6 23112121
Learmonth 7 23122221
Canberra 4 23012110
Hobart 4 22112111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2221 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 5 Quiet
29 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet, with some
Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian region.
There were some Storm periods at high latitudes. Conditions over
the next 3 days are expected to be mostly Quiet. Isolated Active
to Storm periods are likely at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
28 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
29 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most regions during
the last 24 hours. Slightly improved HF conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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