[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 15 09:41:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2148UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours
with two C-class and an M1(2130UT) flares from region 1236
(N17E64). A CME off the East limb was observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery at around 0810UT, which is unlikely to be
geo-effective. Solar wind speed increased from 450Km/s to
550 km/s during the UT day by the time of report issue. IMF
Bz mostly fluctuated between +8/-5nT. Solar wind speed is
expected to gradually decline over the next 3 days. Solar
activity is expected to be Low over the next three days
with some possibility of isolated M-class events during
this peiod.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22231111
Darwin 5 22230111
Townsville 6 22231111
Learmonth 6 22231012
Canberra - --------
Hobart 4 12230011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2122 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled over the mid-part
of the UT day and Quiet at other times. Isolated Active
intervals observed at high latitudes. This activity was due
to the continued effects from a mild coronal hole high speed
stream. Unsettled periods are expected on day one. Conditions
should decline to Quiet level on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions were observed due to continued minor
enhancements in the geomagnetic activity levels today. Nearly
similar HF conditions are expected on 15 June, with conditions
returning to mostly normal levels on the following two
days thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with MUF depressions
up to 25% at times were observed on mid and high latitude
locations. Nearly similar HF conditions are expected on day
one of this forecast peiod with conditions returning to normal
on the following two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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