[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 14 09:47:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 91/36 93/38
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. A C-class
flare was observed from the east Limb (N20) at 0055UT likely
from a new active region that is about to appear at the north
east limb. A Partial Halo CME was observed lifting off the SE
Limb in LASCO and STEREO imagery at 0424UT. Solar wind speed
varied between 420km/s and 480km/s during most parts of the UT
day. IMF Bz mostly fluctuated between +5/-6nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain nearly at the same levels over the next
24 hours and then decline over days 2 and 3 as the weak coronal
hole stream subsides.Isolated C-class events are possible over
the next few days. Solar activity is expected be Very Low over
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11222212
Darwin 6 11222222
Townsville 7 ---32211
Learmonth 5 11222112
Canberra - --------
Hobart 4 11112211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 1112 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 7 Quiet
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the past 24
hours with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes.
Nearly similar levels of activity are expected tomorrow.
Activity is expected to decline slightly over days 2 and
3 as the weak coronal hole stream subsides.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with MUF depressions up
to 25% at times were observed on mid and high latitude locations.
Continuing weak ionosphere observed in Antarctic region. Nearly
similar HF conditions are expected on day one of this forecast
peiod with conditions returning to normal on the following two
days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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