[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 17 09:29:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
All regions currently on disc have a low flare probability. The
solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite ranged between
360 km/s and 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component ranged betwen +/-
2nT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next
3 days and the solar wind speed is expected to remain around
current levels for the next 2 days. A recurrent coronal hole
high speed wind stream is expected to cause an increase in the
wind speed sometime on the 19th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11120101
Darwin 4 21221111
Townsville 3 21121101
Learmonth 3 11220111
Canberra 2 11110101
Hobart 1 11110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days. On
the 19th a recurrent coronal hole hish speed wind stream is
expected to become geo-effective, causing Unsettled conditions
with the possibility of isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values before 08UT,
Depressed up to 30% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected
monthly values. Northern and equatorial regions were depressed
from late afternoon local time. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Disturbed geoagnetic conditions may cause
larger depressions late on the 19th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 24100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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