[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 16 09:30:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
All regions currently on disc have a low flare probability. The
solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite reduced from
480km/s to 400 km/s over the day. The IMF Bz component ranged
betwen +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low
for the next 3 days and the solar wind speed is expected to remain
around current levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 13111110
Darwin 4 13111111
Townsville 5 13212111
Learmonth 5 23112110
Canberra 2 03101000
Hobart 2 12101000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2323 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet conditions with an Unsetled period around
3-4 UT were observed in the Australian region. An Active period
was observed in Antarctic regions during the same time. Conditions
are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected
monthly values. Northern and equatorial regions were depressed
from late afternoon local time. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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