[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 13 10:51:04 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Regions 1146 and 1140 are the only two notable regions on disc
and remain unchanged. Region 1140 was the source of a B1.6 flare
at 2141UT. Solar wind speed ranged between 460km/s-520km/s over
the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase on 14Jan
as an equatorial positioned coronal hole moves into geoeffective
position. IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT in the first half of the
UT day and +/-3nT in the second half. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 6 12222122
Hobart 6 22221122
Casey(Ant) 8 ---32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1200 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 5 Quiet
14 Jan 11 Unsettled
15 Jan 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
during the last 24 hours with an isolated Active period for Antarctic
regions between 03-09UT as Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT. Solar wind
speed remained slightly elevated over the UT day at ~500km/s and is
not expected to increase until 14Jan with the arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream from a equatorial positioned geoeffective coronal hole.
Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 13Jan with Unsettled conditions
on 14Jan-15Jan and possible Active periods for mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
15 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions during local day and night. Depressed MUFs of 15% during
local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Mostly normal ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Notable sproadic E observed for
Northern AUS and Southern AUS IPS stations between 10UT-20UT.
Similar MUFs depressions of ~20% are expected for the next 3
days for low to mid latitudes and disturbed conditions possible
for high latitudes begining on 14Jan due to an anticipated increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 87900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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