[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 12 10:55:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1140 was the source of a B3.1 flare at 1750UT No significant
change in sunspot area for the current regions on disc over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed ranged between 510km/s-450km/s
over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase on
14Jan as a equatorial positioned coronal hole moves into geoeffective
position. IMF Bz ranged between +4nT and -3nT with notable southward
periods in the latter half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Darwin 7 22212322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 4 01112221
Hobart 7 12212322
Casey(Ant) 12 3--32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3111 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 6 Quiet
13 Jan 5 Quiet
14 Jan 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained slightly
elevated over the UT day and is not expected to increase till
14Jan with the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a equatorial positioned geoeffective coronal hole. Mostly Quiet
conditions expected for 12Jan-13Jan with Unsettled conditions
on 14Jan and possible Active periods for mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed for some Northern
AUS/Equatorial
reghions during local day and night vnd during local night for
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Normal ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Notable sproadic E observed for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS IPS stations between 15UT-20UT. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with depressed MUFS ~20% for low to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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