[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 11 issued 0040 UT on 30 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 30 11:40:43 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT *corrected version*
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    1350UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.0    2152UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec:   147/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN     145/120               145/120                145/120

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with several C-class flares 
and two M-class events mainly from region 1389(S23E58). This region 
still hold potential for C-class and isolated M-class flares. 
The solar wind speed fluctuated around 350Km/s until 11 UT after 
which velocities increased from 350 to 450 Km/s. This relates 
to the arrival of the forecasted CMEs, however the effect was 
less than anticipated. The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-10nT 
range. Solar wind speed is expected to increase further over 
the next few days due to these CME arrivals and a southern polar 
coronal hole effects.


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12342222
      Darwin               9   22332222
      Townsville          11   12342223
      Learmonth           11   22342223
      Norfolk Island      10   12342222
      Camden              12   22442222
      Canberra             9   12341222
      Hobart               9   12431212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     7   12241112
      Casey               34   45742223
      Mawson              21   34432335
      Davis               31   35563333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0001 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec    20    Quiet to Active
31 Dec    12    Unsettled
01 Jan    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The Australian geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active 
over the first part of the UT day declining to mostly Quiet over 
the second half of the UT day. Major Storm levels observed in 
Antarctica. Similar conditions are possible for the next 24 hours 
due to the expected arrival of CMEs and a coronal hole high speed 
stream.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Dec   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec   120    About 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan   120    About 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of MUF enhancements. Similar conditions may be expected 
over the next 3 days. Minor degradation in HF conditions is possible 
at high latitudes due to the increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 278 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    26600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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