[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 11 issued 2346 UT on 29 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 30 10:46:46 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1350UT possible lower European
M2.0 2152UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 0/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 0/0 0/0 0/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with several C-class flares
and a single M1 event at 1350UT from region 1389(S23E58). This
region still hold potential for C-class and isolated M-class
flares. The solar wind speed fluctuated around 350Km/s until
11UT after which velocities increased from 350 to 450Km/s.
This relates to the arrival of the forecasted CMEs, however the
effect was less than anticipated. The IMF Bz remained mostly
in the +/-10nT range. Solar wind speed is expected to increase
further over the next few days due to these CME arrivals and
a southern polar coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 12342222
Darwin 10 22332223
Townsville 11 12342223
Learmonth 11 22342223
Norfolk Island 10 12342222
Camden 12 22442222
Canberra 9 12341222
Hobart 9 12431212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 12241112
Casey 34 45742223
Mawson 21 34432335
Davis 31 35563333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
31 Dec 12 Unsettled
01 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The Australian geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active
over the first part of the UT day declining to mostly Quiet over
the second half of the UT day. Major Storm levels observed in
Antarctica. Similar conditions are possible for the next 24 hours
due to the expected arrival of CMEs and a coronal hole high speed
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 120 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUF enhancements. Similar conditions may be expected
over the next 3 days. Minor degradation in HF conditions is possible
at high latitudes due to the increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 278 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 26600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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